讀外刊:人工智慧無法勝任怎樣的工作?

今天繼續分享經濟學人文章“A different dystopia: July 2030”精讀筆記。一起讀外刊,學英語,看世界。

第一段精讀筆記:

讀外刊:在未來,機器人太多會成為阻擋社會繁榮的威脅嗎?

第二段精讀筆記:

讀外刊:機器人會搶走哪些人的工作?

第三段原文

A different dystopia July 2030 (3)

A different dystopia July 2030 (3)

01:38

未知來源

But these dire forecasts did not come to pass, for two reasons。 First, AI failed to advance as quickly as some people thought it would。 In 2018 Rodney Brooks, a professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), forecast that driverless-car services comparable to conventional taxis were unlikely before 2032 and that a robot which could navigate its way around the steps and clutter of an ordinary home would not become widespread until 2035。 With just a few years to go, he seems likely to be proved right on both counts。 During the 2020s robots powered by AI became more widespread, changing many industries and taking over repetitive jobs。 But they were not cheap and still cannot handle many tasks requiring human discretion or empathy。 In nursing and social care, in particular, robots are not up to the job。

(1) But these dire forecasts did not come to pass, for two reasons. First, AI failed to advance as quickly as some people thought it would.

dire:extremely serious or terrible極其嚴重的,極可怕的

come to pass 實現,發生

fail to do sth。 未能…… 未做到……

(2)①In 2018 ②Rodney Brooks, ③a professor ④at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), ⑤forecast ⑥that driverless-car services ⑦comparable to conventional taxis ⑧were unlikely ⑨before 2032 and⑩ that a robot which could navigate its way around the steps and clutter of an ordinary home would not become widespread until 2035.

長句分析:

①是狀語,②是主語,③是②的同位語,④是介詞短語作professor的定語,⑤是主句謂語,⑥是that引導的賓語從句,作forecast的賓語,forecast與第二段的predict是同義替換,⑦是形容詞片語作driverless-car services的後置定語,⑧是賓語從句⑥的謂語部分,⑩that引導的另一個賓語從句,同樣作forecast的賓語,是which引導的定語從句,修飾限定robot,是賓語從句⑩的謂語部分。

driverless-car 無人駕駛汽車

例句1:

Driverless cars

are proving harder to develop than most people expected。 無人駕駛汽車的開發比大多數人預期的更難。

例句2:Today the country is at the global frontier of new technology in everything from mobile payments to

driverless cars

。 如今,從移動支付到無人駕駛汽車,中國在方方面面都處於全球新技術的前沿。

comparable:being equally important, good, bad etc〔重要性、好壞等〕同等的,可相提並論的

例句:唐弢《故鄉的雨》中,“可是跑到外面,沒有山,沒有湖,也沒有經雨的嫩綠的葉子,一切都不及晴天好”: While in the open, seeing no mountains, nor lakes, nor rain-drenched soft green leaves, you‘ll find nothing

comparable

to a fine day。

(3)With just a few years to go, he seems likely to be proved right on both counts. During the 2020s robots powered by AI became more widespread, changing many industries and taking over repetitive jobs. But they were not cheap and still cannot handle many tasks requiring human discretion or empathy. In nursing and social care, in particular, robots are not up to the job.

on all/several/both counts各個/幾個/雙方面

例句1:We might object

on both counts

我們可能對這兩點都不贊成

例句2:It was important that they secured a large and widespread audience。 They failed

on both counts

。 贏得數量多、分佈面廣的觀眾對他們來說很重要,但他們這兩點都沒能做到。

take over接管;接收

discretion:the ability and right to decide exactly what should be done in a particular situation決斷能力;處理權;酌情決定權

常用的搭配為:at somebody’s discretion (=according to someone’s decision,根據某人的決定、意願,由某人斟酌決定),use/exercise your discretion(使用決定權)

例句:The awards are made

at the discretion of

the committee。 獲獎者由委員會決定。

empathy:the ability to understand other people’s feelings and problems同情;同感,共鳴

up to: clever, good, or well enough to do something 勝任;有資格做;適於〔做某事〕

例句:I’m afraid Tim just isn’t

up to

the job。 蒂姆怕是幹不了這份工作。

官譯:

但這些可怕的預測沒能成真,原因有二。首先,AI的進步不像某些人預想的那樣快。2018年,麻省理工學院的教授羅德尼·布魯克斯(RodneyBrooks)預測,在2032年之前,無人駕駛汽車服務不大可能與傳統的計程車相媲美,而能在普通住宅中上下臺階並繞過雜物障礙的機器人要到2035年才開始普及。現在離他預測的時限只差幾年了,看起來這兩個預測都是對的。在2020年代,由人工智慧驅動的機器人變得更加普及,改變了許多行業並接管了重複性工作。但它們並不便宜,而且仍然無法處理許多需要人為判斷或同情心的任務。特別是在護理和社會照護方面,機器人無法勝任工作。

讀外刊:人工智慧無法勝任怎樣的工作?

第四段原文

Second, the 2020s showed that the level of employment depends on more than just automation: it also depends on ageing and immigration。 As their populations aged, rich countries saw their workforces shrink。 Many invested more in robots as they aged, and some let in more migrants, plugging some of the skills gaps and boosting productivity。 Countries with relatively slow ageing and lots of robots did best。 But those that underinvested in automation, or shut themselves off from the world, were hard hit。

plug the gap:to provide something that is needed, because there is not enough填補空缺

例句:With so few trained doctors, paramedics were brought in to

plug the gap

。 訓練有素的醫生很少,所以引進了醫務輔助人員來填補空缺。

shut themselves off from the world 閉關鎖國

shut yourself off: to avoid meeting and talking to other people把自己封閉起來

官譯:

其次,2020年代已表明就業水平不僅僅取決於自動化,它還取決於老齡化和移民。隨著人口老齡化,富裕國家的勞動力逐漸減少。許多國家在人口老化時加大了對機器人的投入,有些國家則引入了更多移民,填補了一些技能空白並提高了生產效率。衰老相對緩慢且機器人數量最多的國家表現最佳。但那些在自動化方面投資不足或閉關鎖國的國家卻遭到了嚴重打擊。

以上。

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